UCRANIA. ANTECEDENTES DE LA CRISIS. minuta de Edgardo Arrivillaga.

Publicado en 05/15,2015

UN INFORME DE LA AGENCIA NOVOSTI REVELA ASPECTOS NAVALES DE LA CRISIS ENTRE RUSIA ,GEORGIA Y LA NATO

El porque de la penetracion rusa en America LATINA en la cual ha influido de forma categorica el Papa Francisco .

Tal como habíamos adelantado la crisis entre Rusia y Georgia es en principio energética y geopolítica mas allá de aspectos relacionados con los derechos humanos de las minorías. La Rusia de Putin no solo no quiere perder territorio ni proyección naval sino que esta dispuesta a recompactar parte de sus colonias perdidas. En particular la zona del Báltico y el extremo este sur del conjunto que configuraba la vieja Unión Sovietica.La zona crucial en el primer aspecto es exactamente Ucrania por su proyección naval, la densidad demográfica-toda la población de Francia sería su equivalente- y aspectos de identidad nacional diseñados por el stalinismo con el mismo criterio de parcelación colonialista que tanto el tratado de Versalles como la partición del mundo otomano en el acuerdo del Trianon plantearon después de la primera guerra.

El presente informe es de la agencia Novosti y y revela aspectos navales latentes de la crisis abierta.

Pero lo real, mas allá de las declaraciones medianamente retóricas de gente como Bernard Henry Levi es que ni los americanos ni los europeos de la vieja Europa tienen capacidad diplomática o militar para impedir esta recompactación y la crisis deberia trasladarse a la Nueva Europa rumsfeldiana que debe conjugar el realismo político kissingeriano - Condy Rice expresa exactamente esas posiciones – con la necesidad de mantener erguida la bandera occidental para los pueblos que ansian todavía la descolonización de Moscú.La NATO es una simpatica armada Brancaleone en esta crisis.

Carece de poder disuasivo militar y pone de relieve las insuficiencias operativas del instrumento de guerra de la Union Europea.

Veamos el análisis de Novosti.

Una agravación de turno se observa actualmente, en relación con los sucesos que se operaron en Osetia del Sur. El presidente de Ucrania ha decidido solidarizarse con el de Georgia, y pretende controlar de lleno la actividad de la Flota del Mar Negro (FMN) de Rusia. Tal control privaría de todo sentido la actividad de la Flota como fuerza militar.

Existe la práctica internacional de controlar el país de estancia la actividad de las bases militares extranjeras ubicadas en su territorio. Es un hecho que no puede menospreciarse. Por ejemplo, Turquía le prohibió a EEUU en 2003 utilizar la base aérea de Injirlik para asestar golpes contra Iraq. Al hacer lo propio Ucrania, Rusia no podría utilizar la base de Sebastópol.

La única misión que puede asumir la Flota rusa del Mar Negro en la perspectiva previsible es la de proteger la costa rusa - no muy larga - en el Cáucaso del Norte y la zona económica rusa en el Mar Negro. Las misiones de mayor envergadura no pueden cumplirse, y no existe la necesidad de hacerlo. Además, puesto que los buques construidos en el período soviético caducan, se opera la reducción numérica de la FMN, la que no se compensa en absoluto. Respectivamente, desde el punto de vista militar Sebastópol se hace innecesario para Rusia como base naval.

En un futuro, la FMN podría incluir de tres a cinco submarinos diesel y unas dos o tres decenas de buques patrulleros y dragaminas, capaces de proteger la zona económica rusa en tiempos de paz y adquirir la posibilidad de luchar contra la Armada del adversario en el Mar Negro en tiempos de guerra. La Flota debe tener su base en territorio de Rusia, por supuesto. En 1997, año en que se firmó el convenio de alquiler que sigue en vigor, Rusia no podía renunciar a la base de Sebastópol por la simple razón de que la ciudad rusa de Novorossiisk era incapaz de recibir los buques y los efectivos que la FMN tenía en aquel entonces.

Es de reconocer que Novorossiisk por sus condiciones climáticas conviene poco para servir de una base naval: en invierno allí soplan fuertes vientos septentrionales. Habría que construir una nueva base, tal vez. Ello supone asumir cuantiosos gastos, pero éstos no serían mayores de lo que cuesta actualmente el alquiler de la base de Sebastópol. Además, al pagarlo se financian, en esencia, las ambiciones antirrusas de Kíev.

De ahí que el problema de la base de Sebastópol parece ser inventado en grado considerable. Pero a Rusia le importa mucho el factor psicológico. A Sebastópol lo denominan "ciudad de la gloria combativa rusa": soldados rusos mostraron heroísmo en masa, al defenderla durante la Guerra de Crimea (1853-1856) y la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Al factor psicológico se suma el político. Hasta 1954, Crimea formaba parte de la República Socialista Federativa Soviética de Rusia (RSFSR), el procedimiento de su entrega a Ucrania parece ser dudoso en el aspecto jurídico. Hasta hoy día, el grueso de los habitantes eslavos de Crimea en general y de Sebastópol en particular no se identifican como ucranios sino como rusos (y hasta soviéticos). Además, existen los tártaros de Crimea, los que se orientan más bien a Turquía.

Las fronteras de la actual Ucrania, trazadas en la época soviética, no responden a las realidades históricas, étnicas ni políticas de la contemporaneidad. El Estado ucranio representa en sí una formación artificial, y en mucho grado como consecuencia de ello, Ucrania empezó a desarrollarse desde 1992 negando tener estrechos vínculos con Rusia. Por esta razón, no se puede hablar en serio de formar una alianza política - y menos aún militar - con Ucrania en un futuro previsible.

Por otra parte, la presencia de la Flota rusa del Mar Negro en Sebastópol actúa como un fuerte factor político y psicológico, el que irrita a las actuales autoridades ucranias, y al propio tiempo como un respaldo a la mencionada identidad ruso-soviética de la mayor parte de la población de Crimea. Además, Moscú cree que la presencia de la FMN en Sebastópol impide el ingreso de Ucrania en la OTAN (se trata, por lo visto, de la variante rusa de la doctrina anglosajona "fleet in being", cuyo significado se reduce a que la propia existencia de la flota del adversario cohíbe a la otra parte).

El futuro desarrollo de acontecimientos en torno a la Flota rusa del Mar Negro, Sebastópol y Crimea dependerá de muchos factores. Perece ser muy poco probable que la FMN quede en Sebastópol, tras expirar en 2017 el plazo del alquiler de la base naval. O la Flota se trasladará a una base ubicada en territorio de Rusia, o cambiará sustancialmente la situación política en Crimea y toda Ucrania.

El Estado ucranio corre el riesgo de quedar dividido en las partes centro-occidente y sudeste. Toda inclinación demasiado manifiesta de las autoridades de Ucrania hacia Rusia o hacia Occidente contribuye a aumentar ese riesgo. Por esta razón, la actitud mantenida actualmente por Kíev con respecto a la Flota rusa del Mar Negro asesta un golpe no menos fuerte contra su propia estabilidad interna que contra la capacidad defensiva que Rusia posee en sus fronteras meridionales.




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