EL MUNDO DESPUES DE LOS K ,ESCRIBE JORGE RAVENTOS.

Publicado en 07/09,2015

A menos de dos meses de las primarias nacionales que iluminarán la relación de fuerzas provisional entre espacios políticos y entre candidatos a la presidencia, lo que muestran las elecciones distritales que ya han ocurrido no ratifica la imagen de polarización excluyente que circula en algunos medios. Hay una rica coloratura entre los vencedores de elecciones y primarias distritales: localismos en la Patagonia (sapagismo en Neuquén, una fuerza independiente en Río Negro), una alianza socialista-radical en Santa Fé, cordobesismo peronista en Córdoba, Pro en la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, peronismo no K en La Pampa, peronismo tradicional en varias provincias.
Conviene escuchar a los triunfadores. Uno de ellos, el gobernador electo de Córdoba, Juan Schiaretti, describió así la etapa que está por comenzar en diciembre: “ Se viene otro esquema de construcción política, de más federalismo, más diálogo. Quien gane no tendrá la suma del poder público, va a tener que negociar, y esto abre un espacio para el diálogo. Mi candidato es De la Sota, pero me llevaría bien con cualquiera de los candidatos que según las encuestas podrían ganar”. Así empieza a dibujarse el próximo ciclo, que sucederá al extenso período kirchnerista.
Los dos espacios que las encuestas muestran como punteros (el oficialismo y el macrismo), preferirían una polarización absoluta. Tanto el Pro como el Frente para la Victoria habrían tocado el cielo con las manos, por ejemplo, si hubiera sido Mariano Recalde y no Martín Lousteau el candidato en condiciones de competir con Horacio Rodríguez Larreta en la segunda vuelta porteña. Para Recalde salir segundo hubiera sido un triunfo y Rodríguez Larreta se aseguraría un resultado cercano a los 70 puntos en el ballotage, considerando el generalizado clima antiK que prevalece en la Capital Federal.
Pero las cosas son distintas. Los núcleos de la polarización no tienen aún el peso que se les suele adjudicar. Hasta ahora estamos ante una polarización imperfecta.
Una reciente investigación de la consultora Aresco, fundada por Julio Aurelio, revela que las dos fuerzas que quieren protagonizar la polarización sólo retienen dos tercios de los votos; más de un 30 por ciento se mantiene fuera de ese esquema.
Otro dato significativo surge cuando la encuesta pregunta sobre la alternativa de cambio o continuidad. Resulta que el 41 por ciento quiere un presidente que encarne un cambio de modelo, mientras que un 17 por ciento quiere un presidente que exprese una continuidad sin cambios y un 33 por ciento aspira a uno que represente una continuidad con cambios.
Se puede decir que los que hablan de continuidad suman más de la mitad de los ciudadanos. Pero también se puede subrayar que entre entre los dos extremos (cambio vs continuidad) el cambio duplica a la otra alternativa. En fin: puede destacarse que un tercio prefiere una postura no polarizada.
Hay, seguro, hastío ante un estilo de gobierno hipercentralizado y por momentos despótico. Pero lo que modera el reclamo de cambio probablemente es que la situación económica hoy está lejos del dramático paisaje que prometíano los números del año pasado y hasta los de inicios de 2015. El cordobés Schiaretti, que nadie puede tildar de oficialista, lo describe así: “No estoy preocupado por la economía., soy optimista y creo que vienen buenos tiempos. Siguen altos los precios de los alimentos, tenemos las reservas de gas y petróleo que nos sacarán de la debilidad estratégica de tener déficit energético, hay una corriente de inversión tremenda, y no veo una situación macroeconómica seria, más allá de errores del gobierno y algunos problemas”. En resumen, dos buenas noticias: el ciclo se termina indefectiblemente y se transita el fin del ciclo sin crisis graves.
Schiaretti se alegra de que “no venga una crisis profunda porque eso -apunta agudamente-termina dando la suma del poder público a un presidente”. No venimos de una crisis como la de principios de siglo, que explica en buena medida la construcción K.
Otro dato: este no es ya el mundo en el que nació el ciclo K, sino uno en el que se vive el ocaso del chavismo, en el que Brasil avanza en reformas y se dispone a una apertura económica, en el que Cuba sale del aislamiento y donde el papel de los mercados emergentes (sobre todo, el de China) se afirma y nos ofrece grandes oportunidades comerciales y de inversión. Un mundo en que un argentino, el papa Francisco, influye sobre los pueblos y los gobiernos con un mensaje de renovación, convivencia, respeto a la ley, moderación y paz.



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