¿Cae Argentina? Analistas temen fuerte devaluación y nueva cesación de pagos que arrastraria a Chile.
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By Alejandro Sáez Rojas
Para algunos, la depreciación del peso es inminente, pero para otros, aún el gobierno de Cristina Fernández puede resistir con sus manejos. El gobierno argentino ha demostrado ser un maestro de los artilugios económicos, pero es posible que los conejos en el sombrero se estén acabando. El 22 de marzo, el Congreso aprobó una ley que le permite echar mano a todas las reservas del Banco Central, pero ello no aquietó la necesidad de dólares por parte de los argentinos, nerviosos ante una posibilidad de que la divisa se vuelva aún más cara.
La Presidenta Cristina Fernández, tras su reelección, lucha por evitar la salida de dólares desde Argentina. Impuso controles de capital y -en lo que fue una herida autoinfligida según el analista de BCP Securities Walter Molano- sólo contribuyó a acentuar los temores y a reavivar la sensación de crisis inminente.
¿Cuál sería la forma de que hoy explotara Argentina? Con una devaluación del peso, porque por más que las autoridades se empeñen en mantener controles sobre las transacciones de dólares en bancos e instituciones formales, el mercado impone el hecho de que faltan dólares y de manera informal los transa a alrededor de 4,8 pesos por dólar, contra el $4,3 oficial. “El gobierno argentino gastó todos los ingresos de la bonanza de las materias primas y más”, precisa Arturo Porzecanski, académico de la American University. Y no puede ir a los mercados internacionales a financiarse. Los dólares son un bien escaso y por lo tanto deben subir de precio.
El alza que debería tener el dólar es incluso mayor que los 4,8 pesos a los que se cotiza en el mercado informal. “Argentina tiene un retraso cambiario del 30% al 40% (es decir, el dólar debería estar alrededor de 7 pesos)”, comenta el gerente general de Octogone Chile, Manuel Bengolea. “Por ahora el único indicador relevante es la brecha entre el tipo de cambio libre y el oficial”, opina el director de estudios de LarrainVial, Leonardo Suárez, a propósito de las señales de alerta que se deben mirar en Argentina.
Cuándo habrá una crisis de proporciones divide a los expertos. Para Manuel Bengolea, la devaluación sucederá muy pronto, porque hay varias razones para esperar una mayor demanda de dólares. Primero, la incertidumbre jurídica, frente a un gobierno que está dispuesto a fijar precios al consumidor, amenazar a quienes cuestionen los distorsionados datos de inflación oficial o estatizar los fondos previsionales. Todo ello ha estado detrás de las corridas cambiarias de argentinos que buscan contar con dólares. Segundo, porque el petróleo producido domésticamente está escaseando y con la obligación de vender un barril en el mercado interno a menos de la mitad que en el internacional, los incentivos para invertir son muy bajos. Y dichos incentivos son menores todavía, cuando en marzo el gobierno argentino dijo que no descartaba nacionalizar YPF, hoy en manos de la española Repsol. Tercero, porque la soya está en un valor muy alto producto de problemas de suministro internacional, y no es descartable que su precio retroceda. En consecuencia, tres presiones sobre el dólar que para Bengolea pueden derivar en una devaluación fuerte del peso argentino frente al dólar.
“Este modelo populista se está quedando sin gasolina y es altamente vulnerable a que haya un bajón en el volumen o precio de las exportaciones, que reduzca la recaudación fiscal que los obligue a recortar el gasto o derechamente a entrar en una cesación de pagos”, opina Porzecanski. “Ahora, cuándo cae Argentina. Estamos presenciando un resquebrajamiento del modelo y si el quiebre total viene en 6, 18 o 24 meses, no es posible saberlo”, dice Porzecanski. Argentina, asevera el profesor, es muy rica en recursos naturales y eso permite sostener políticas populistas mientras el precio de los recursos naturales esté alto. “Probablemente en 2013 o 2014 habrá un quiebre total en el modelo y deberán tomar medidas más ortodoxas o entrar en cesación de pagos”, dice Porzecanski. Esta vez, eso sí, ya no se tratará de los acreedores externos o el Fondo Monetario Internacional, sino principalmente los mismos argentinos que han comprado bonos del gobierno. “Al final del período de Cristina es cuando podría ocurrir un problema mayor”, estima Leonardo Suárez.
¿Cómo afecta a Chile?
En Argentina se concentra la mayor cantidad de inversión extranjera en términos del dinero acumulado, según un reciente estudio de Bci. Un cuarto de la inversión chilena en el exterior está en ese país, pero los flujos hacia esa nación han ido en desmedro fuertemente respecto de países como Brasil, Perú y Colombia.
Hoy es Cencosud, controlada por Horst Paulmann, la que cuenta con la mayor exposición en ese país, seguido en montos menores por Falabella, Andina y CMPC. “De producirse una crisis mayor en Argentina le podría pegar a la bolsa chilena, pero con menor fuerza que en crisis anteriores”, estima Manuel Bengolea.
Una devaluación en Argentina también podría influir en el tipo de cambio chileno. La depreciación del peso argentino en el largo plazo devolvería competitividad a los exportadores de vino y fruta, lo que dejaría en desventaja a los productores chilenos. En ese contexto, de no mediar alzas en el precio del cobre, el dólar podría escalar en Chile: “Pero no a precios significativamente mayores que el actual”, cree Bengolea. “Argentina dejó de ser relevante para el tipo de cambio en Chile”, opina Suárez.
Pero el gobierno de la Presidenta Cristina Fernández continuará dando que hablar con sus medidas, opina Porzecanski. “Veremos más restricciones a las importaciones, a la compra de dólares y nacionalización de empresas. Si Argentina no fuera un país tan rico como es, ya habría quebrado hace mucho tiempo”, asevera.
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The so-called "famous brand" refers to the medium and long term in a product category with higher market share brand. Here need to explain the two parts, one is the famous brand should be "long-term" has higher market share brand, in other words, if for some reason for temporary high share brand,
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can't be famous brand, because it will soon become insignificant in the market the brand. Only those who can long-term based on market brand, is it possible to become a famous brand. Second, in the "market share" in a word, the market is attributive, used to modify share. That is to say, share is relative market character
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The market is big is small, there are areas, the national and global, so the brand has a regional, national and global. Some areas of the famous brand, not necessarily is the national famous brand; Also, the national famous brand, is not necessarily the international famous brand. In turn, a national famous brand may not be a certain area of famous brand.
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Famous brand and famous brand creation is in last few years domestic marketing research a hot topic. Based on the comprehensive analysis of domestic and foreign scholars about brand views and based on the results of the study, this paper puts forward an operational definition of "famous brand",
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and at the same time to create the famous brand the essence of the system are analyzed and discussed. This paper holds that,famous brand refers to the medium and long term product categories with higher market share brand; Create brand is the essence of the built in memory of consumers about brand knowledge, specifically is to set up brand name and product category, product evaluation, and other unique concept of the association.
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