LA PACIENCIA DE MACRI SE AGOTA.

Publicado en 02/19,2016

Este viernes (19/2) la Argentina estaría presentando un escrito defendiendo la oferta presentada en la primera semana de febrero ante el mediador Dan Pollack. El Gobierno de Mauricio Macri publicará la respuesta al escrito presentado ayer (18/2) por el fondo NML. Luego, el juez Thomas Griesa deberá decidir si hay una nueva audiencia, si dedica la próxima semana para su propia deliberación o si directamente habilita la propuesta argentina para que se sumen los bonistas interesados y levanta las medidas cautelares.

Este último escenario es el que aguarda Macri. Porque así se normalizaría el pago a los bonistas del canje y el país podría fondearse más barato para pagar a los acreedores que acepten la oferta.

Además, se destrabaría el default y el regreso a los mercados, donde Macri espera captar US$ 25.000 millones.

Luego, el Gobierno para destrabar el default, precisa levantar la Ley Cerrojo y toda la estrategia parlamentaria pasa por ahí. Pero asoman otros problemas en el contexto, los que existen en los mercados internacionales y que complican el financiamiento para el gobierno nacional.

En cuanto al juicio en New York, el diario Ámbito Financiero destaca que los holdouts más importantes dejaron ayer en claro que no están dispuestos a aceptar nada que ofrezca la Argentina y que sólo aceptarán que el país les pague los US$ 9.000 millones que reclaman. Sin quitas ni de capital ni de intereses ni punitorios; y sólo estarían dispuestos a negociar un plan de pagos o la entrega de un bono que inmediatamente de emitido pueda ser vendido a bancos.

Además, dos holdouts pequeños rechazaron la oferta argentina. Se trata del FFI y Pablo Varela. Ambos se sumaron al escrito que ayer presentaron en conjunto Elliott y Aurelius.

La estrategia del gobierno es justamente captar a los bonistas pequeños para hacer presión sobre los grandes, contando con el apoyo de Griesa y Pollack, para que convenza a los intransigentes.

Si todo saliera bien y hubiese acuerdo con los holdouts, la Argentina deberá emitir y colocar deuda por US$11.000 millones, que muchos acreedores aceptarían si está asegurada su inmediata venta.

El problema que el financiamiento internacional que necesita Macri en el corto plazo se demora por los problemas que hay en los mercados internacionales.

El diario BAE destaca, por su parte, que los holdouts salieron a contradecir al mediador Dan Pollack, que habló de “avances importantes” en las negociaciones. Según NML, eso es “incorrecto” porque, entre el fondo EM de Kenneth Dart y Montreux (los dos que ya firmaron el preacuerdo) sólo conforman el 14% del grupo de holdouts ampliado (buitres principales más “me too”).

El levantamiento de las medidas cautelares, afirma entonces NML, afectaría los derechos del 86% de los demandantes que no aceptaron la oferta. Probablemente esa proporción calculada ayer por el fondo de Singer haya cambiado levemente tras el acuerdo anunciado anoche con Capital Markets por 110 millones de dólares.

El mediador Daniel Pollack anunció ayer un nuevo principio de acuerdo. Se trata del fondo Capital Markets, que aceptó la propuesta de pago argentina por un total de 110 millones de dólares. Considerando que es un fondo “me too”, podría haber aceptado la “oferta pari passu”, que prevé una quita del 27,5% para los que firmaran antes de las 17 de hoy (hora Nueva York).

El special master afirmó que, como en todos los casos, el principio de acuerdo deberá ser respaldado en el Congreso y dependerá de la anulación de las injunctions (medidas cautelares). Una de las exigencias del Gobierno a todos los acreedores que firmen, se supo el miércoles, es que acompañen el pedido argentino ante Griesa para que levante esas órdenes, concluyó BAE.

En cuanto a la argentina, se espera con relación al dólar que haya calma hasta junio por el pago a los holdouts y la cosecha porque a fines de abril, es la época en que se espera que se perciba con fuerza la llegada de las divisas del agro por la liquidación estacional de las exportaciones de soja.

Según Ámbito Financiero, el argumento de estas expectativas se apoya, en primer lugar, en la oferta estacional de dólares que suele haber entre abril y junio, en el llamado "trimestre de oro" de la economía. El mercado supone que es razonable que las presiones actuales sobre el billete desaparezcan una vez que llegue la liquidación de divisas y que el tipo de cambio deba ser sostenido desde entonces por el Banco Central, para evitar una pérdida de competitividad. Y en segundo lugar, en los efectos que pueda generar en el mercado una resolución sobre el conflicto de deuda que la Argentina mantuvo a lo largo de estos años con los holdouts.



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    HASTA QUE LA VERGUENZA QUE NOS EMBARGARON LA FRAGATA.
    BUENO ESA FUE IDEA DEL PERONISMO ,ELLOS CREÍAN O LOS GOBERNADORES CREÍAN QUE LA SOLUCION ERA DEFAULTEAR Y ESO LO CANTARON POR TODOS LADOS(COMO TENIAMOS LA SOJA) .
    PERO COMO CLARIN LES TAPO LA SITUACIÓN DE DEFAULT A LOS KIRCHNER ,CURIOSO NO?

  2. ANA
    02/26,2016 | 00:18

    LA GRACIA DE LOS PERONISTAS ,LUEGO QUE FUE MENEM EL QUE FUNDIO AL PAIS ,ERA QUE HABIA QUE DEFAULTEAR.DUHALDE LO DIJO EN CAMPAÑA.
    EL PROBLEMA QUE CREIA CRISTINA ERA QUE PAGANDO AL FONDO ES DECIR LIBRANDONOS DEL FONDO quedábamos libres de la NECESIDAD DE TOMAR NUEVOS CRÉDITOS ,PORQUE ELLOS (EN REALIDAD TIENE RAZON ES USURA PURA) NOS PRESTAN CON LA CONDICION DE QUE NOS ENDEUDEMOS.Una de las razones por la que cayó ILLIA FUE ESA QUE NO SE ENDEUDABA.
    PERO PECARON DE INGENUOS PORQUE EL SISTEMA TENIA LA TRAMPA QUE ERA EN REALIDAD PRIVADO ,QUE ESTOS PRESTAMISTAS DOMINAN TODOS LOS PODERES O SEA AMBAS BANCADAS DEL CONGRESO DE USA Y LA CORTE SUPREMA DE USA TAMBIEN.

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