LA REVOLUCION TURCA Y ALGUNOS INTERROGANTES. Por Edgardo Arrivillaga.

Publicado en 07/22,2016


Es largo de charlar. Vivi varios meses en Saloniko y Tesaloniko. Mustafá Kemal Ataturk nació en Saloniko por lo tanto el constructor de la nueva Turquía era griego y su larga batalla por la independencia turca que incluyó la abolición del sultanato y el califato fue parte de una enorme guerra civil en la cual Gran Bretaña, Francia e Italia encerraron a las tropas de Ataturk previendo una rapida victoria. Las cosas no fueron asi y la entente fue debilitada por la liberacion de Lenin en Finlandia que provoco la Revolucion de Octubre y el desenganche ruso del conflicto.
Ataturk fue un republicano, era mason, artillero educado en Francia y heroe de la batalla librada en la Gallipode turca. En realidad habia dos conceptos enfrentados; uno de ellos queria recrear el panislamismo y el otro, mas realista de Ataturk, queria modernizar Turquia, abolir el sultanato , lo hizo, y depurar a las escuelas de la influencia de los partidos religiosos prosultan y de extrema derecha para hablar en terminos sudamericanos. Erdogan por ahora es un misterio porque no se visualiza muy bien si implica una nueva revolucion pero islamista o una contrarrevolucion. Sospecho que el ejercito turco, el mas fuerte de Europa, fue abandonado por Obama y Kerry con pretextos futiles. Hay que tener un perfil mas preciso de Erdogan y desde luego la alianza con Rusia como vemos fue decisiva en la construccion de la Turquia republicana. Hay paralelismos significativos; el ejercito turco suprimio el diezmo, se fijo metas de desarrollo que se llaman exactamente Plan Quinquenal y tomo medidas extraordinariamente revolucionarias para la epoca. Pese a la eficacia de los servicios de inteligencia turcos y la crueldad de su policia secreta es muy dificil imaginar que se puedan detener mas de 20 mil personas en 48 horas. Mi impresion es que efectivamente hubo una manipulacion de Obama y Kerry y por eso mismo el contragolpe de Erdogan fue rapido y con una baja cantidad de muertos para las pautas de la zona. El ejercito parecio carecer de liderazgo y poca capacidad de resistencia frente a la policia. Esto no fue una simple sublevacion de caras pintadas al estilo argentino sino la mansa entrega del ejercito republicano a las fuerzas policiales. Incvluso el uso de los tanques fue bastante desprolijo. Los tanques avanzaron sin proteccion de infanteria y fueron rapidamente copados por una multitud que era esencialmente pueblo turco, de ahi que no se comprende bien todo el operativo. Las comparaciones de Ardogan que ya habia tenido cuatro intentonas revolucionarias pero de menor nivel en los ultimos cinco años no puede compararse con el proyecto revolucionario de Ataturk que implico la adopcion del calendario internacional, la del nuevo Codigo Civil, el primer censo de la poblacion turca, una reforma alfabetica, asi como la adopcion de la numeracion internacional y una ley sobre cooperativas de credito agricolas. Tambien el ingreso de Turquia a la Sociedad de las Naciones junto con la donacion de las granjas modelo del propio Ataturk al Estado. Tambien en esa epoca se rubrica el pacto bilateral franco turco ya hecho en Ankara. frente a toda esta serie de medidas no se sabe muy bien no se sabe muy bien cual es el proyecto politico, salvo la islamizacion de Ardogan. Igualmente se puede anticipar un aumento de la tension con Grecia, el esquema binacional de Chipre nunca funciono realmente y algo muy importante. El embajador turco en Atenas reclamo la devolucion de un helicoptero con sus tripulantes que habia aterrizado en suelo helenico para escapar de la represion. Otro hecho mucho mas estrategico es que Turquia informo que queda excenta de la supervison de los derechos humanos en todos los organismo competentes, sean estos de la Union Europea u otros. Si Obama quiso estrangular al Isis desarticulando la dura represion de Assad consiguio el efecto absolutamenmte contrario. No es la primera vez, recordemos Teheran 1978, que los americanos se equivocan en sus evaluaciones politicas. Se puede anticipar una gran represion, la instauracion de la pena de muerte y un periodo de oscilaciones politicas muy complejas. Ya en lo economico se cincela un panorama en el cual el turismo, fuente principal de la economia turca, ha sido pulverizado por un largo tiempo. Veremos como se desarrolla esta situacion y si existe realmente el golpe dentro del golpe, como sostiene Siria, un atento observador de las maniobras turcas.



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