LAS CLAVES DEL GOLPE DE ESTADO EN TURQUÍA. Por Andrés Mourenza.

Publicado en 07/23,2016


¿Fue un autogolpe?

Varios hechos indican que no fue así: la magnitud de la asonada militar –movilizó a una parte nada desdeñable de las Fuerzas Armadas, los violentos combates entablados entre rebeldes, policía y militares leales, y el que tuvieran que secuestrar al jefe del Estado Mayor, el general Hulusi Akar. El nerviosismo y descoordinación con los que actuaron las principales figuras del Gobierno y sus asesores en las primeras horas en una formación política, el AKP, en la que la narrativa y los discursos son fuertemente controlados desde lo alto del partido, indican también que no era algo orquestado. Además, no parece factible que Erdogan pudiese encontrar en el Ejército a miles de oficiales dispuestos a tirar por la borda sus carreras –serán condenados a larguísimas penas de cárcela mayor gloria del presidente.

¿Tenía el Gobierno información sobre el plan golpista?

Según una fuente de seguridad consultada por este diario, los servicios secretos transmitieron a Erdogan 15 alertas de posibles golpes de Estado en los últimos seis meses. En un principio el golpe de Estado estaba previsto para inicios de agosto, justo antes del Consejo Militar Supremo (la reunión entre Gobierno y Fuerzas Armadas en la que se deciden las promociones y expulsiones), en el que –era un secreto a voces el Ejército iba a ser purgado de militares opuestos a Erdogan.

Otra prueba de que el Ejecutivo podría haber tenido información previa es que ya la semana anterior al golpe se practicaron detenciones de presuntos militares gülenistas y se corrió la voz de que a finales de julio habría más arrestos, presuntamente en una táctica del Gobierno para adelantar los acontecimientos. “La razón principal por la que el golpe falló fue su nacimiento prematuro”, escribe el exmilitar Metin Gurcan. La fecha y hora elegida para dar el golpe fueron las 3.00 de la madrugada del 16 de julio, pero el plan hubo de adelantarse una vez más porque, según los medios turcos, los servicios secretos captaron con anterioridad conversaciones militares y descubrieron los planes golpistas.

¿Cómo se enteró Erdogan del golpe?

El presidente Erdogan aseguró anoche a la cadena qatarí Al Yazira que se enteró de los planes golpistas porque le avisó su cuñado, Ziya Ilgen, un profesor retirado. En cambio, de acuerdo con la fuente de seguridad consultada, esto no es cierto, sino que fue la Organización Nacional de Inteligencia (MIT) la que le avisó en torno a las 15.00 ó 16.00 de la tarde del viernes. De cualquier modo, cuando los comandos de las Fuerzas Especiales y la Armada llegaron al hotel de la localidad costera de Marmaris con la misión de matar a Erdogan, éste ya había escapado al cercado aeropuerto de Dalaman.

¿Cómo escapó Erdogan?

Desde el aeropuerto de Dalaman, Erdogan voló a Estambul poco después de la medianoche del 16 de julio tras contactar con el Primer Cuerpo de Ejército que se había mantenido leal y le prometió protección. De todas formas, entonces el aeropuerto Atatürk de Estambul estaba tomado por los golpistas y el avión del presidente camufló su código de vuelo en el de un avión comercial. No queda claro en cambio por qué los F-16 que aparentemente siguieron al avión presidencial fueron incapaces de derribarlo.

¿Algún país ofreció su apoyo a Erdogan durante el golpe?

No hay constancia de ello. Los aliados de la OTAN esperaron varias horas antes de emitir una declaración de condena del golpe. Otros países como Irán, Arabia Saudí o Rusia telefonearon al día siguiente para ofrecer su apoyo a Erdogan contra los golpistas.

¿Quiénes fueron los autores del golpe?

El Gobierno acusa de estar tras el golpe a la comunidad religiosa dirigida por Fethullah Gülen, que desde la década de 1980 ha infiltrado a sus seguidores en el seno de la Administración y las fuerzas de seguridad. Con todo, el periodista Ahmet Sik, que ha investigado a la cofradía islámica y hace años fue a la cárcel por ello, cree que “no actuaron solos” sino en colaboración con otras facciones militares, aunque los gülenistas fueron “el cerebro”. Varios análisis en la prensa turca concuerdan con esto. Un oficial del Ejército consultado por este diario asegura que “las Fuerzas Armadas están muy divididas”.

¿Qué unía a los golpistas?

Dado que entre los militares había diversos grupos, desde los seguidores de Gülen a aquellos molestos porque hasta hace un año el Gobierno negociase la paz con el grupo armado kurdo PKK, la única cuestión que les unía era el odio a Erdogan.

¿Quién está en la calle?

Erdogan y los suyos llamaron a la población a salir a la calle a detener el golpe y a no abandonar las plazas puesto que “el peligro aún no ha pasado”. En su mayoría, los ciudadanos turcos que abarrotan las calles son gente de clase baja, clase trabajadora y de la nueva clase media surgida durante el gobierno del Partido de la Justicia y el Desarrollo (AKP). Muchos de los que asisten a las marchas contra el golpe visten atuendos religiosos y corean consignas islamistas, aunque también hay seguidores de otros partidos. Se han visto también pancartas a favor del ultraderechista Sedat Peker, un mafioso convicto que en la década de 1990 participó en la guerra sucia contra los kurdos y la izquierda, y es que parte de los asistentes proceden del ámbito del partido ultranacionalista MHP. También hay manifestantes partidarios de otras formaciones políticas y, de hecho, la principal de la oposición, el partido socialdemócrata CHP, ha convocado una manifestación este fin de semana en la plaza Taksim de Estambul “Por la República y la democracia”.

¿Cuál es el balance del golpe?

Más de 250 personas, entre civiles, policías, militares leales y golpistas, han fallecido. Cerca de 1.500 personas resultaron heridas y varios edificios militares, policiales y administrativos –incluido el Parlamento resultaron severamente dañados. Más de 10.000 personas han sido detenidas, de las cuales la mayoría son militares (y más de la mitad de ellos, soldados rasos). Se ha desatado una purga contra los funcionarios que se ha extendido a diversos estamentos del estado, desde la Judicatura a los servicios secretos, la Educación y la oficina del primer ministro.

¿En qué se basan las purgas? ¿Tenía preparada una lista de represaliados? ¿Por qué ha sido tan rápido?

Efectivamente, fuentes del Gobierno reconocían a EL PAÍS tener preparadas listas de personas que en la Administración estaban ligadas a la cofradía gülenista, pero que el tener que seguir los procedimientos judiciales al uso les había impedido actuar antes contra ellos. Un sindicalista consultado por este diario aseguró que “el 80-90%” de los maestros afectados son gente simpatizante de Gülen, y el resto simples opositores: “Está claro que saben a por quién van, porque son ellos mismos (el Gobierno del AKP) quienes los pusieron allí”.

¿Quién es Gülen?

Es un clérigo musulmán a cuyo alrededor creció la más importante cofradía islámica de Turquía, a la que llaman Hizmet (Servicio) y que los expertos comparan a una versión musulmana del Opus Dei. Aunque conservadores, promueven el diálogo con otras religiones y defienden –al menos de palabra la democracia y la economía de mercado. Tras el golpe de Estado de 1980, aprovechó que la Junta Militar impulsó la religiosidad como modo de luchar contra el comunismo para extender su organización. En la década de 1990 se apoyó en diversos partidos políticos para incrementar su influencia política, aunque tras el golpe de 1997, contra el gobierno islamista de Necmettin Erbakan, se exilió a Estados Unidos. Después se le abrió un proceso judicial en ausencia tras hallarse unas cintas en las que instaba a sus seguidores a infiltrarse silenciosamente en las estructuras del Estado hasta hacerse con el poder. Este juicio fue enterrado cuando el AKP llegó al poder y, Gülen y Erdogan aliados, se lanzaron a luchar contra el viejo establishment kemalista, nacionalista y laico.

¿Por qué se enemistaron Erdogan y Gülen?

Gülen era contrario a las negociaciones de paz establecidas entre el Gobierno turco y el grupo armado kurdo PKK –considerado terrorista en Turquía, la UE y EE UU en 2012-2013 y bajo la supervisión directa de Erdogan. Así que los gülenistas intentaron torpedear el proceso como pudieron y magistrados gülenistas trataron de procesar al jefe de los servicios secretos turcos, Hakan Fidan, por las conversaciones secretas mantenidas en Oslo (Noruega) con dirigentes del PKK. Entonces, los enfrentamientos fueron in crescendo: Gülen criticó la represión contra los manifestantes de Gezi que se habían levantado contra Erdogan y los miembros de su cofradía asesoraron a políticos de la oposición en las sucesivas elecciones —según pudo comprobar este periodista en Estambul en la campaña municipal de 2014—. Además, a finales de 2013 se inició una investigación sobre la corrupción en el entorno de Erdogan y se filtraron en internet conversaciones de alto nivel supuestamente grabadas sin permiso. El mandatario turco tachó estos hechos de un intento de derrocar al gobierno. Curiosamente, el propio líder del PKK, Abdullah Öcalan, calificó estos hechos de “golpe de estado” dirigido a acabar con las negociaciones de paz.

¿De quién dependería implantar la pena de muerte? ¿Se podría implantar con carácter retroactivo para los golpistas?

Como parte del proceso de adhesión a la UE, la pena de muerte fue abolida en tiempos de paz en 2002 –cuando gobernaba un tripartito que incluía partidos de centroizquierda, centroderecha y la ultraderecha del MHP y en 2004 también para tiempos de guerra, cuando ya mandaba el AKP islamista. Volver a implantarla ahora implicaría modificar la Constitución y salirse de varias convenciones europeas, además de, como han recordado varios dirigentes comunitarios, renunciar completamente a la adhesión a la UE. Abogados, partidos políticos y organizaciones de derechos humanos han advertido de que no se podría aplicar a los golpistas porque eso implicaría ejercer el derecho de forma retroactiva. Aplicarla a los militares sublevados, por tanto, implicaría abandonar el Estado de derecho que rige en Turquía y el país debería salir de organismos internacionales como el Consejo de Europa, al que está ligado el Tribunal de Estrasburgo, ya que esta corte de derechos humanos podría fácilmente anular cualquier condena a muerte hecha de forma retroactiva.

¿Dónde están los detenidos?

Dada la magnitud de las detenciones y que los tribunales –mermados por las purgas avanzan despacio a la hora de tomar declaración e imputar cargos a los militares (de momento han sido 1.300), los detenidos están siendo custodiados en diversos lugares, incluidos estadios y pabellones deportivos en Ankara –para los militares de menor rango y comisarías y dependencias de la Dirección General de Seguridad para los mandos.

¿En qué consiste el Estado de emergencia?

La medida, regulada por el artículo 120 de la Carta Magna, impone severas restricciones a derechos constitucionales como la libertad de movimiento, la de reunión y la de expresión. También permite ampliar el periodo de detención y acelerar la labor ejecutiva del Gobierno mediante decretos leyes que el Parlamento debe aprobar o rechazar de inmediato.

Además, permite imponer toques de queda e impedir el tráfico o el paso por determinados lugares a voluntad de los encargados de su aplicación en cada provincia, habitualmente los delegados del Gobierno. Además, permite hacer registros sin autorización judicial previa y obliga a las personas que quieran trasladarse a diversos puntos del país a solicitar un permiso especial. Durante estos tres meses, las autoridades tendrán potestad de prohibir o censurar publicaciones de prensa, radio, televisión y actuaciones culturales, como obras de teatro o películas. La importación de todo tipo de publicaciones y obras producidas fuera de la zona donde rige el estado de emergencia —en este caso, toda Turquía— quedará sujeta a autorización previa. Además, los trabajadores podrán ser despedidos sin tener en cuenta los convenios laborales, excepto en condiciones especiales.

Sin embargo, el Gobierno ha prometido que no hará uso de todas las prerrogativas que le confiere el Estado de Emergencia y que “no afectará a la vida cotidiana”. El ministro de finanzas, Mehmet Simsek, dijo que el estado de emergencia en Turquía será “como los de Francia o Bélgica”.




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