COLOMBIA CONEJO ¿Hacia el último Vietnam latinoamericano? Por Edgardo Arrivillaga.

Publicado en 10/04,2016

Escribí este trabajo sobre las FARC hace un tiempo ya. Igualmente algunas anticipaciones se han cumplido. Otras no .Y el hecho nuevo del rescate de rehenes mas publicitado desde la toma de la Embajada americana por los jóvenes komeinistas a fines de los 70 es la aparición del mediador Hugo Chávez Frías.
También el alineamiento de la Cancillería argentina en este programa humanitario que esconde una realidad siniestra y stalinista. Cabe preguntarse porque la izquierda bien pensante sigue creyendo en alguien como Chávez pero si analizamos la posición de esa misma izquierda titánicamente humanitaria frente al GULAG soviético, la invasión a Praga y la exportación de la revolución mediante los Mig a Afganistán todo adquiere un sentido lógico de crucigrama descriptado.
Las FARC son un grupo militar en operaciones y la negociación y la libertad y captura de rehenes deben ser entendidos simplemente como recursos de una larga guerra de desgaste. Y en los años 70 el Ejercito Revolucionario del Pueblo –ERP –tenia exactamente la misma metdología, objetivos, tactica y estrategia de las FARC colombianas. Hasta que fueron profesionalmente exterminados por el ejercito nacional argentino y los intentos de establecer el reconocimiento internacional para una patria tucumanaza liberada , escuetamente eliminados por la acción de comandos navales operando en diversos frentes de guerra de forma simultánea. Pensar otra cosa respecto a las FARC es soñar con integrar a las FARC armadas a los Cascos Blancos o enviarles al licenciado Saín, a Vertvitsky o a alguien parecido a darles clases de derechos humanos.
La voz mas clara a favor de las FARC es la de Hebe de Bonafini. Esa voz algo repulsiva, físico y voz y sebacea obscenidad no desentonan, es la misma voz que aplaudió los atentados en las Torres Gemelas y es la misma voz que junto con el ex maestro D Elia aplaude todos los asesinatos en el mundo occidental ejecutados contra la gente. El ex montonero Kunkel ya se apresuró aclarando que los Montoneros de los 70 no tenían el proyecto político de las FARC aunque su pasada de mamut del jurassic militantista guerrillero ante la televisión le impide reconocer la realidad. "No son un grupo terrorista " declaró sin inmutarse mientras el bronceado bien curado de la playa sonreía apaisadamente con el cinismo de los galanes maduros que hacen guiños hacia las cámaras. Es uno de los hombres de mayor influencia en el gobierno argentino y cree conocer de política exterior.
Lo cierto es que es hora de que el gobierno argentino deje de sonreír como un chico travieso que cultiva el amor por las historias del Zorro Diego de la Vega.
Los asesinos están entre nosotros y los cómplices intelectuales de los asesinos están en el gobierno de nuestro país.
No se los encuentra ni en el Brasil, ni en Chile, ni en el Uruguay.Solo en la Argentina.
Nosotros solos.
Los invito a releer el trabajo. Es un analisis ya datado pero encontraran elementos esclarecedores sobre las FARC y el contramodelo impuesto por esta pandilla a la sociedad colombiana por obra del narcotrafico y de la buena utilización de una selva densa y de perfil vietnamita en los montes que unen el Caribe con el hinterland sudamericano.

En su último libro Kissinger plantea si una superpotencia puede abandonarse a la tentación de una diplomacia muscularmente fuerte o si, por el contrario, esa irresistible tentación hegenemónica unipolar que se advierte en lo que Washington llama la "pax americana" no resulta conspirativa contra los propios intereses nacionales que se pretende defender.

La tardía autocrítica del admirador de los equilibrios vieneses del siglo XVIII, un halcón que liquido la guerra de Vietnam, se desintereso de América Latina privilegiando el dialogo Norte -Norte en pleno florecer del tercermundismo militante-resulta bastante interesante en un momento en que la extraordinaria supremacía norteamericana en el campo tecnológico y militar no parece articularse en una diplomacia internacional del consenso sino mas bien en la hegemonía simple y clara como sustituto de cualquier política internacional medianamente articulada en torno a un orden jurídico aceptable para todos y -que en algunos aspectos-contemple las peculiaridades de la multidiversidad y las culturas raigalmente enfrentadas.
Varios elementos que es necesario abordar-antes de entrar en ese extraño corazón de las tinieblas que constituye la especificidad colombiana- pueden sintetizarse en la victoria de un Bush ,el Joven, que no solo representa a una dinastía petrolera sino también a un plexo axiológico de cristianismo fundamentalista circundado por figuras claves que comparten los mismos principios, uno piensa básicamente en Peter Cheyney y Condolezza Rice, en el emerger de un tecnócrata que piensa en la resolución de las guerras como una estrategia que se basa en la logística-"los medios hacen al objetivo " ha dicho y me refiero concretamente Donald Ramsfield y a la inevitable consecuencia de los atentados del 11 de septiembre y a la guerra previsiblemente ganada de antemano de Afganistán. Y en esa sucesión de desafíos, respuestas y a la vez finalmente triunfos se diseña una nueva estrategia americana donde la pax nacional quiere convertirse en un pax humanal aunque los protocolos de Kyoto queden atrás y el Tribunal Internacional para Crímenes de Guerra tenga un vistoso ausente: justamente el pensamiento primigenio de quién fue su primer impulsor: los propios Estados Unidos de América.
Pero si se reflexiona con mayor agudeza se entiende mejor la contradicción principal ya que la estrategia de la potencia vencedora de la guerra fría se enmarca en tres marcos diferenciados y a la vez complementarios.
El primero consiste en impedir el surgimiento de otra potencia hegemónica que sustituya a la ex Unión Soviética y en ese sentido los esfuerzos por debilitar a Rusia poseen una impecable coherencia.
El segundo punto es impulsar la lucha global contra el terrorismo, un proyecto tan ambicioso que no solo no tiene limites ni fronteras ni coordenadas ni paralelos sino que taxativamente hace tabula rasa del estado-nación creado por los europeos y reintroduce un marco estratégico que se complementa con la nueva globalización mercantil, la transnacionalizacion de las operaciones ,el desarrollo comunicacional, el previsible traspaso de las soberanías del capitalismo nacional hacia los conglomerados transnacionales y el desarrollo de una comunidad científico-tecnológica liderada por el mundo anglosajón que encuentra allí su propio espacio referencial.
Finalmente otro punto nodal de la nueva estrategia consiste en desarrollar un minucioso monitoreo de los países con capacidad tecnológica como para desarrollar armas de destrucción masiva y establecer una especie de política internacional que constituya una extensión mundial de los viejos acuerdos SALT. En palabras simples, el Fondo Monetario puede aportar la racionalidad económica que los países desarrollados aspiran para la defensa de sus intereses pero alguien, en este caso alguien con poder de comando y control incuestionable tiene que mantener vigentes los equilibrios de los sistemas de armas en un mundo esencialmente mucho mas peligroso, justamente por la diversidad de los actores en juego.
El ultimo punto, que se articula con el terrorismo en algunos aspectos pero también con el flujo de capitales y su control, esta claramente encarnado en la economía sumergida del narcotráfico. Y probablemente en ese punto advertiremos que la búsqueda de las llaves maestras de la centros energéticos encuentra su inevitable similitud-al menos visto desde cierto ángulo-con la cruzada infinita contra el terrorismo pero con la búsqueda del control, de la regulación, de la autorregulación si es necesario, de los países productores de drogas.
Afganistán es el paraíso de las amapolas y Colombia, desde hace ya muchos años ha sustituido los cupos a sus exportaciones cafetaleras, erigidos por la propia aduana americana, por el permanente destilar de una negocio que declara una ganancia de 630.000 millones de dólares al año solamente en las cuentas y auditorias de los bancos occidentales. La ganancia en definitiva es mucho mayor.
En este punto tanto el nuevo eje estratégico asiático como la crisis colombiana encuentran una extraña sintonía. También en ese punto Colombia parece dejar de operar a contramano de la historia regional convirtiéndose en parte de un engranaje que vincula a Afganistán con Pakistán y hace extender el radio de acción de los intereses americanos de una forma inicialmente impensable. Y ahora veremos porque.
DOS
Lo primero que se advierte es que no resulta en modo alguno casual que el presidente Uribe haya reclamado la presencia del despliegue militar aeronaval que se prepara contra Irak) frente a las costas colombianas. Elegido como el candidato fuerte, como el hombre duro y sobrio de la derecha, como el representante de los sectores medios y liberales en un país casi sin sectores medios y con una escasísima propensión al liberalismo, Uribe intenta -como un equilibrista intelectual-conectar la creciente desintegración del estado colombiano, iniciada hace mas de treinta años con un virtual eje del mal que incluiría a los estados delincuentes pero alargando un poco el teatro de operaciones a la Colombia mala, insurrecta, narcotraficante y básicamente anticolombiana. En síntesis, a las FARC.
Ocurre sin embargo que hay un antes y después de Oribe. Y es necesario entender el antes para comprender el salto de calidad militar de las FARC-un primigenio misterio metodológico y de modelo que poco a poco se va mostrando porque gradualmente y en el curso de tres generaciones casi ha pasado de la teoría y praxis del foquismo- Regis Debray a la jungla "liberada" guevarista para muy recientemente pasar a estrechar lazos con el ETA vasco y el IRA irlandés, quienes le proporcionaron la instrucción necesaria para jaquear a las ciudades con lo que se podría anticipar una verdadera ofensiva del TET y la simétrica vietnamizacion del conflicto y esto implicaría, por lo menos desde cierto ángulo una creciente americanización de la guerra en la cual Maracaibo, Medellín y Bogota serian el equivalente de Vietnam del Sur
Si esto se produce habrá un inevitable entremezclarse de cartas, de ejércitos, de paramilitares y de niñas con collares de granadas que estallan como guirnaldas de muerte y el país insurrecto ira lentamente extendiendo su jurisdicción sobre el país urbano y formal y entonces ya se podrá hablar de una clara vietnaminizacion obviando la inexistente presencia soviética.
Pero lo determinante es establecer si hace falta una ingerencia externa en el conflicto, si la narcoguerrilla no constituye un hecho revolucionario logísticamente sustitutivo y a la vez mucho mas peligroso y hasta que punto el largo goteo humano colombiano no constituye una de los primeros enfrentamientos postmodernos detrás de las mascaras seudo revolucionarias que nos proponen los intelectuales.
Como siempre en América Latina hay que ir para atrás para entender.
TRES
De una forma bastante curiosa el país pareció operar con pautas asimétricas con respecto a la región. Sin dictaduras a la vista, sin oscilaciones hiperinflacionarias o recesivas creció al compás del narcotráfico en la medida en que las cuotas exportadoras de café, en su mayoría dirigidas hacia los Estados Unidos, disminuían y la exportaciones de trigo eran prolijamente liquidadas en parte por la acción del senador Hubert Humprey, un eficaz lobbysta que promovió un fuerte programa de ayuda a las empresas agroalimentarias de su país. El objetivo era que el grano americano partiera de sus silos hacia los países caribeños y en contrapartida se les otorgaban a los países adquirentes créditos que en general subsidiaban operaciones de compra sin control ni licitación alguna. Las armas de autodefensa eran compras frecuentes en la región, se protegían del comunismo-argumento poco viable-pero en verdad alimentaban un sector comercial sin viabilidad productiva alguna.
Esta objetiva desestabilización de los precios de las materias primas colombianas fue generando la cultura de la choca mientras otros productos razonables como la yuca, el plátano, las pasturas, el ganado tendían a desaparecer. En su lugar algunos pequeños hacendados, matriz incipiente del sector que luego se auto denominaría "los paramilitares" empezaron a colonizar la Amazonia colombiana descubriendo una obviedad inevitable: la coca era el cultivo mas productivo, lo que hacia rendir mejor la hectárea y luego, como asegura Ricardo Vargas, un especialista en drogas andinas constituiría una fuente de rédito tanto para la contraguerrilla como para la guerrilla por medio de un doble mecanismo: la venta ilegal directa, la venta gris a sectores vinculados a los laboratorios-muchos de ellos europeos, muchos de ellos socialdemócratas sus gobiernos, hasta la alternativa del impuesto revolucionario cobrado por la guerrilla a los campesinos.
En este esquema las FARC actuaron como un ejercito en operaciones, cobraban sus tributos, controlaban con la rigidez de un régimen asiático -Pol-Pot viene a la mente-el consumo de sus cuadros y hasta mantenían una clase diferenciada de campesinos a los que no se les permitía el cultivo de droga ni su consumo. Y el asunto tenía su lógica, las operaciones militares no pueden desarrollarse con soldados drogados o atiborrados de coca. Eso quedaba reservado para otras latitudes, otras culturas.
Esta situación, un poco inverosímil permitió que la guerrilla se encontrara con el control de un cuarenta por ciento del país, negociara con el gobierno del entonces presidente Pastrana la posesión de un territorio similar a España, comprara mísiles aire-tierra para neutralizar las incursiones tanto de la Fuerza Aérea como de los avioncitos de deforestación cargados de pesticidas y ocasionalmente efectuaran incursiones en Ecuador, Brasil y sobre todo Panamá.
Y Panamá no es una pieza menor porque además del trafico bioceanico, se encuentran free ports chinos que pertenecían a Hong-Kong y con la transferencia de la ex colonia inglesa a la Republica Popular son enclaves de Beijing instalados en el corazón del mare nostrum americano. Así, de una forma discreta sectores asiáticos y revolucionarios latinoamericanos comienzan a encontrar puntos de encuentro y de interés. Mas al sur, en la zona de la Triple Frontera, también hay una importante comunidad de negocios china y un banco que actúa de forma eficaz y discreta: el banco de la Republica Popular China.
CUATRO
Los antecedentes revolucionarios de las FARC son algo que no puede descuidarse por su mutaciones metodológicas que les permitieron sobrevivir, expandirse y en términos de equilibrio táctico triunfar, por lo menos hasta el momento. Han superado la etapa de zona liberada, de control poblacional, de trasvasamiento generacional-algunos de sus ancianos comandantes frisan los setenta años de jungla y muchos de sus cuadros jóvenes han nacido en la jungla, lo que explica, al menos parcialmente el fracaso de los paramilitares, fuertemente apoyados por tropas especiales americanas y tácito lugar de entrenamiento para grupos especiales de ejércitos latinoamericanos confiables para Washington. Chile, en particular, a la vanguardia de todos.
Surgieron en el periodo conocido como "la Violencia" y sus cuadros se hallaban inicialmente entre las milicias liberales campesinas que se formaron para resistir al Ejército. Luego del golpe de estado de 1953 un mínimo de orden se instalo en el país y un intento de contrarrelato asimilacionista signo la historia colombiana. Tanto liberales como conservadores llegaron a un acuerdo basado en la alternancia presidencial y los más genuinamente liberales implantaron la consigna de "bajar las armas".Como todo grupo revolucionario, tanto de derecha como de izquierda, algunos se sintieron orgánicamente traicionados y por lo tanto desobedecieron e inauguraron el ciclo que condujo linealmente a la guerra actual en Colombia.
El más famoso fue Pedro Antonio Marín, quien fundo el bloque de los guerrilleros del sur y se haría famoso con un apodo de inequívoca aptitud marcial: Tirofijo. También apareció la competencia por el liderazgo de la desestabilización: el Movimiento 19 de Abril y el inevitable Ejercito Popular de Liberación.
El problema estratégico de los campesinos que realmente eran liberales y casi podían asemejarse a las guerrillas de la revolución mexicana de comienzos del siglo XX, era que los gobiernos conservadores no podían controlar las matanzas, ni a los parapoliciales ni a la liquidación de los cuadros guerrilleros que querían genuinamente hacer política, justamente como lo habían hecho los caudillos mexicanos.
El ultimo intento serio de negociación, mucho antes de que se hablara de comités por los Derechos Humanos o de observatorios especializados lo hizo el presidente Belisario Betancourt que termino en la aniquilación de 5000 cuadros de la izquierdista Unión Democrática y abrió el camino a los comités de Autodefensa antiguerrilla iniciando el lento y desesperanzado desmantelamiento del estado nacional.
Resulta cruelmente paradójico que en la cumbre de Davos de 1999 al analizar la situación colombiana políticos y economistas sus conclusiones fueron que "el tema de la democracia no es solamente un tema de los colombianos " y que la "consolidación de las instituciones democráticas en ese país será siempre problemática por los hábitos corruptos que vienen del pasado ,siempre realimentados por el dinero y el poder organizado de los poderosos carteles " para agregar la necesidad de "expandir la industria del petróleo y buscar un consenso mundial para solucionar el problema de la droga por métodos no "violentos".
Es bastante interesante en este diagnostico que el problema de la droga aparece como un ejercicio de desciframiento inevitable para el ejercicio democrático. En esto la visión de narcoguerrilla de la DEA parece imponerse como un ejercicio de seguridad interior para un complejo y en el fondo bastante latinoamericano problema socioeconómico del cual permanece totalmente ausente todo elemento, duda o disquisición dirigida a la estructura bancaria. Mucho menos a su consumo.
El otrora famoso zar antidrogas Barry McCaffrey siempre sostuvo que las FARC son una nueva especifidad revolucionaria a la que define sin vacilaciones como narcoguerrilla. En esa definición maneja cifras bastante discretas si se las compara con las auditorias de inteligencia efectuadas por los organismos internacionales y las unidades de inteligencia financiera de los bancos centrales que monitorean la masa monetaria circulante. Solo 1500 millones de dólares garantizarían la existencia del movimiento guerrillero y básicamente serian producto de la recaudación, el famoso impuesto revolucionario y -detalle interesante-una prima que pagarían los laboratorios, no se especifican cuales ni su nacionalidad-para poder operar libremente en el campo de los analgésicos tan vitales para la medicina del mundo desarrollado.
Probablemente el análisis mas cáustico del llamado Plan Colombia, inaugurado por la administración Clinton se deba a la DEA justamente, cuando informa que "todas las ramas del gobierno de ese país están involucradas en corrupción vinculada las drogas y destaca como aumento de pesos sustantivo que en noviembre de 1998 los inspectores americanos encontraron 415 Kg. de cocaína y 6 Kg. de heroína en un avión de la propia fuerza aérea colombiana que había aterrizado imprevistamente en Florida.
Otros observadores también han informado sobre el papel relevante de los militares en el trafico y hasta la propia esposa del corone Jame Hiert se declaro culpable del cargo de conspiración y hasta el propio jefe militar termino incriminado. Esta información fue vistosamente publicada en el New YorK Times el 4 de abril del 2000 y reavivo el fantasma de las involucraciones de los soldados en el tráfico de drogas en Vietnam. El reenvío de cadáveres americanos forrados en droga a las bases de la costa oeste permanece vivo en el recuerdo de los que participaron en el largo goteo asiático.
CINCO
Esto explica parcialmente la reluctancia americana a participar de forma decisiva en el conflicto y por el contrario abre una seria interrogación sobre el problema de la llamada narcoguerrilla. Lo cierto es que el problema ya se había planteado inicialmente en el seno de las FARC. Probablemente la muerte de Jacobo Arenas, el ideólogo más destacado del movimiento volcó el movimiento hacia un perfil decididamente más empresarial. Este perfil no les impide reconocerse en el Vietcong, pero se trataría de un Vietcong sustancialmente híbrido e impuro que solamente en los últimos tiempos y cabalgando el tigre de Uribe, de los parapoliciales y del mayor esfuerzo de guerra propuesto por Bogota empieza a reflexionar sobre cosas tan setentistas como la metodología para enfrentar al imperialismo, la rapacidad de cierto imperialismo que reconoce sus pautas directrices en USA mas que en Europa y algo esencial para al desenlace de la crisis colombiana. Algo tan esencial como lo es el control poblacional.
Ocurre que el territorio de las FARC, ese inmenso Macondo hecho de realidades y de muerte pero también laboratorio de una experiencia social militarmente socializante no se caracteriza por la densidad poblacional.
Esta jungla escasamente poblada, con sólidos y fuertes cultivos de droga son una retaguardia esencial para la base narco, algo tan simple como los oasis de agua marcados en la ruta de un desierto para los nómades beduinos. Pero esa falta de población es lo que empata las fuerzas en presencia y de esta forma la incapacidad del ejercito colombiano, auxiliados por los parapoliciales operando sin proyecto político alguno convierten al enfrentamiento en una disputa de iguales, reflejando-paralelamente-la inviabilidad de una solución exquisitamente política simplemente porque nadie logra totalizar al pueblo colombiano y a su clase media residual de forma absoluta.
El presidente Ernesto Samper había intentado tibiamente revertir esta situación con la creación de la famosa Brigada Móvil N 3 que perdió 80 hombres en sus primeros combates, entro en una crisis de moral de combate y sus cuadros caídos alimentaron a los centenares de soldados que se encuentran en poder de las FARC que han desarrollado como un enorme gang que ya golpea las ciudades la poderosa industria del secuestro.
Un autorizado análisis presumiblemente realizado por un servicio de inteligencia del MERCOSUR explicaba en estos términos las condiciones de la derrota :"los enfrentamientos se produjeron en las selvas del bajo y medio Caguan, un lugar de espesa vegetación, de difícil acceso y alejado de los centros de apoyo logístico del ejercito, allí funcionan los principales centros cocaleros del país-laboratorios y plantaciones, férreamente controlados por las FARC y dentro de la región donde tienen su asiento el Bloque Sur y el propio Secretariado del grupo guerrillero, desplegando el primero una fuerza de combate de aproximadamente 3.000 hombres.
En un principio las tropas helitransportadas que fueron en apoyo de una unidad militar convencional atacada-la base de comunicaciones ubicada en la cima del cerro Patacoy, una plaza retenida hasta entonces como inexpugnable-no pudieron acercarse debido a las condiciones climáticas que no permitían una buena visibilidad. Accesoriamente algunos de los helicópteros fueron alcanzados por disparos efectuados por los guerrilleros desde tierra, muriendo de inmediato varios soldados.ara superar el daño el ejército inicio el traslado de unos 1200 hombres al lugar pero la temporada de las lluvias dificultaba el desplazamiento de las tropas. La Fuerza Aérea -por su parte, envió aviones para brindar apoyo esencialmente logístico a las operaciones terrestres. En lo que respecta al saldo de los enfrentamientos la información fue deliberadamente confusa ya que inicialmente las tropas gubernamentales se negaban a emitir datos oficiales sobre el número de victimas, mientras que as FARC en una clásica operación de intoxicación o acción sicológica emitía comunicados deliberadamente inflacionados sobre los hechos.
Finalmente después de varios días quedo establecido con cierta verosimilitud que el saldo del enfrentamiento fue de 62 militares muertos, 43 desaparecidos, algunos de ellos presumiblemente hechos prisioneros para operaciones e canje por las FARC y 47 heridos rescatados con vida.
La guerrilla, por su parte oculto sus muertos en tres grandes osarios comunes de los cuales solamente de uno de ellos fueron extraídos 35 cadáveres. Esto determino que el gobierno fijara un coeficiente por parte de los insurgentes cercano al centenar pero también es necesario agregar a esto 32 victimas civiles ametralladas por las operaciones tácticas de apoyo de la aviación.
El combate, unido a derrotas gubernamentales sufridas en parajes con nombres tan deliciosos o ambiguos como El Billar, Patascoy y Delicias hicieron que el gobierno revisara los planes de despliegue y las avenidas de aproximación- a corte de machete en la jungla-de la Brigada Móvil Antiguerrillas pues percibieron el costo de las derrotas como síntoma de descontrol."
¿Es que las tropas ingieren drogas? se pregunto alguien. No había indicios claros al respecto como tampoco había indicios de que lo hicieran las FARC. Una simetría más entre colombianos.

En el ínterin el gobierno bosquejo un plan político, estruendosamente fracasado porque la conducción guerrillera pretendía mas y mas territorio, porque simultáneamente había abierto un importante frente internacional al operar a través de la Cruz Roja sugiriendo un intercambio de prisioneros supervisado por las Naciones Unidas y porque los militares-de forma casi autonómica pero preanunciando la necesidad de alguien tan decidido como el actual presidente Uribe, crearon una nueva fuerza de tareas conjunta, integrada por 5.000 efectivos provenientes del ejercito, de la infantería de marina y de la policía antinarcóticos que fueron rápidamente despachados al departamento de Caquetá para evitar que le región se convirtiera en un nuevo bastión.
SEIS
Lo cierto es que entre 1998 y el 2000 el ejecito colombiano había sufrido los peores golpes en toda lucha contra la guerrilla y la mayoría de los observadores especializados así como los académicos afectos a la polemologia sostenían que el factor común de los desastres eran serias fallas en la inteligencia, la contrainteligencia y -tema angustioso para los combatientes en las noches de luna llena-la planificación táctica operacional.
El desastre de las Delicias, en particular revelo lo que ya sabían los viejos estrategas romanos:"el desastre surge como consecuencia de la debilidad de los otros" y los accidentes militares que se reflejan en batallas perdidas y banderas en el polvo, también.
Era sencillamente impensable iniciar las operaciones con un despliegue militar de compañías de 150 hombres-tres secciones aproximadamente-sin tener en cuenta que se operaba en el corazón del bloque mas importante de las FARC, justamente donde se encontraba su secretariado, un equivalente a un estado mayor en operaciones.
La valentía de los colombianos, de uno y otro lado, estaba fuera de discusión, pero resultaba claro que las cúpulas castrenses gubernamentales tenían serias fallas, deficiencias y sobre una incapacidad esencial para encarar racionalmente un método de lucha contra el terrorismo campesino en su propio territorio.
El golpe sufrido adquirió mayor magnitud, al menos psicológica, porque la brigada era considerada como un cuerpo de elite, creado especialmente para perseguir, alcanzar y neutralizar el comando estratégico de las FARC, al propio secretariado ejecutivo.
Asimismo, los resultados del enfrentamiento afectaron la imagen de las Fuerzas Armadas y del gobierno que languidece que ni siquiera había sido capaz de dirigir de manera eficaz a su propia Fuerza Aérea, responsable de la eliminación más o menos indiscriminada de civiles.
Es que indudablemente la región de Caguan se había convertido en una zona estratégica, tanto para la guerrilla como para el ejército, que la considera vital para ocultar los cultivos y los laboratorios de procesamientos de droga, cuidadosamente ocultos y diseminados en la jungla.
La creación de la fuerza de tareas era la búsqueda de forjar una nueva herramienta de combate y fue completada con la Asunción de Uribe en medio de los rudimentarios morterazos de garrafas de gas que acompañaron su asunción en el corazón de la ciudad, con la creación de un cuerpo casi infinito de informantes, que teóricamente deberían haber constituido los ojos y oídos del gobierno todo a lo largo del territorio confinante con las FARC.
El segundo aspecto que habían dejado como enseñanza los combates tenía un voltaje político ya señalado. La imposibilidad de alcanzar la supremacía militar, situación que se volvía mas aguda en la región suroeste del país, donde la cantidad de guerrilleros era y continua siendo muy elevada, todo lo cual puede hacer preanunciar nuevos episodios como los de las metafóricas Delicias.
Finalmente el recurso a la Cruz Roja, así como el viaje de técnicos de la guerrilla en un paseo triunfal para estudiar modelos de organización social en la vieja Europa, destilaban ya una vocación de poder, de internacionalizar el conflicto y a la vez de manejar sabiamente las conversaciones de paz -ya perennemente estratificadas- junto con una operación de cerco militar que estaba llegando, como lo ha hecho recientemente, de forma peligrosa, a las principales ciudades del país.
El segundo salto de calidad de la guerrilla fue su aproximación con la guerrilla vasca y -como ya hemos señalado, aprendieron los trucos, las capacidades, las tretas y los aguantaderos que exige una guerrilla urbana.
Es el momento en que al modelo vietnamita se sumaba el modelo argelino. Primero el Frente de Liberación Nacional que empujo a los franceses hacia las playas y luego hasta Marsella, actualmente el FIS islámico que quiere repetir la experiencia con la estructura laica de poder árabe.
Comienza intensificarse la presión militar pero asoma al menos formalisticamente, el estructuralismo dialéctico de la política.
Pero en este tamiz selectivo que conjuga territorio liberado, ganancias permanentes del narcotráfico que otorgan mayor independencia que la que tuvo-es un ejemplo-el Vietcong con la ex Unión Soviética, la capacidad de adquirir los sistemas de armas mas aptos para los objetivos a cumplir y ,finalmente y no es lo menos importante, la rama de olivo tendida a los laboratorios europeos interesados en la legalización selectiva de la droga, junto con las infinitas posibilidades de corrupción que permite la ideología de la pasta blanca configuran un entramado de muy difícil resolución para pergeñar escenarios de normativa pacificación consensuada.
SIETE
Un interesante análisis de Gabriel Alejandro Uriarte apunta a indicar como imposibilidad de la paz a la falta de una cierta hegemonía militar, precisando que si bien el orden y la seguridad reinan en el territorio de los narcoguerrilleros, la superioridad convencional-hemos visto que operativa en absoluto-del ejercito de la Colombia oficial continua siendo un deferente eficaz como para evitar el efecto derrame de las FARC sobre el resto del territorio nacional. El análisis que se basa en un esquema de posicionamientos clásico más que ideológico anota un punto bastante sorprendente al destacar que la guerrilla es "una respuesta desde la izquierda al estado-nación en armas y por lo tanto al ejército legal."
La tesis es interesante pero las guerrillas latinoamericanas de los sesenta y setenta no son las FARC ni mucho menos la Prusia que conformo al país desde la casaca grisácea de sus ejércitos, aunque es cierto que la palabra ejercito para la intelectualidad moderna posee un contenido contrarrevolucionario en tanto para los pensadores del siglo XIX tenia una connotación revolucionaria porque expresaban la vigencia de un pensamiento liberal, carbonario, iluminista y esencialmente nacionalista que se manifestaba contra una concepción militar dinastica que se materializaba mediante profesionales servidores de casas reales cuyos grados finalizaban en mutarse en condados, marquesados baronías.
De todas maneras el análisis rescata algo esencial, que en los tiempos que signaron el siglo XX era más fácil entusiasmarse por una guerrilla que por un ejército lo cual elevaba o disminuía la calidad del revolucionario profesional a los valores que tradicionalmente se vinculan con el pensamiento de un soldado de infantería.

Y en este punto podemos advertir algunas ideas de Alfredo Rangel, el más importante, sistemático y continuador pensador del problema militar colombiano.
Para Rangel la batalla se definirá en el pensamiento del secretariado de las FARC, única instancia de la cual puede surgir un deseo de forjar una paz que galvanice positivamente el doloroso proceso de amputación y mutilación territorial.
Rangel manifiesta algunos aspectos conocidos y otros menos, que el treinta por ciento de los cuadros de la guerrilla son mujeres, que los niños nacen y se crían en el monte-lo cual explica los fracasos militares del propio Uribe, tema sobre el cual volveremos -y que para crear una substancial situación de empate que obligue a la negociación el ejercito debe profesionalizar su tropa, establecer principios de conjuntez con la Fuerza Aérea, aumentar la constitución de fuerzas de intervención rápida como quiso ser la trágica Brigada Móvil y sobre todo liquidar los vínculos espurios que unen al ejercito nacional con los paramilitares, estos últimos constituyendo algo similar a un enorme escuadrón de la muerte pero sin proyecto político, sin presupuesto oficial, mas que el de que surge justamente de la droga y con un desprejuicio metodológico militarmente operacional que se convierte en un tercer actor de disolución dentro del ya fragmentado panorama colombiano.
Para Rangel básicamente es imposible aniquilar a la guerrilla pero es posible llevarlas a la mesa de negociaciones-en eso su pensamiento es tal vez demasiado optimista-pero centra sus argumentos en algunos puntos básicos.
En principio todavía la fuerza de masa del ejercito nacional frente a los 15.000 hombres que puede alinear la guerrilla, luego la existencia de una ayuda americana cuantificada por lo menos en algo mas de 300 hombres que estarían modernizando al ejercito quien a su vez habría comenzado a liquidar drásticamente sus contactos con los paramilitares(disiento con este punto a partir de la llegada de Uribe con su diseño de crear un enorme sistema de inteligencia y control interior que justamente tendría sus cimientos en los vacacionales mastines de la guerra, es decir los propios paramilitares).
Otro punto interesante del pensamiento de Rangel es mejorar el sistema de comunicaciones, lo cual permitiría dar mayor movilidad para ir secando uno a uno los por lo menos siete frentes que posee la guerrilla en las cercanías de Bogota y que los colocan prácticamente a 60 kilómetros de la capital.
En síntesis el planteo del analista se resume en imposibilidad de aniquilar la guerrilla pero por medio de la recuperación del equilibrio militar obligarlas a la negociación y para eso necesitan una sucesión de derrotas parciales que los lleven a "cambiarles las percepción que tienen del conflicto armado".
El problema es que hay un problema de costos, sacrificio y en ultima instancia voluntad de poder. Después de algunas victorias iniciales, que se explican en gran medida por el mejoramiento de su sistema de inteligencia, el nuevo presidente ha comenzado a percibir que el costo de un soldado profesional, algo similar a un boina verde entrenado por la eficiente maquina de guerra americana oscila en los 25.000 dólares, el costo del florecer de los niños y adolescentes guerrilleros es simplemente cero porque desde que salen del vientre de sus madres y luego de pasar por sus escuelas, que son básicamente militares, se integran con la naturalidad de un caimán al medio ambiente circundante.
Planteado en esos términos manda la demografía, la calidad de la demografía y el equilibrio estratégico se aleja cada vez mas mientras la guerrilla sigue siendo visualizada como un actor natural del paisaje colombiano.



Permanencia, persistencia, crecimiento, despliegue, consolidación, son los elementos constitutivos de las FARC que repiten secuencialmente el imaginario de la OLP, del IRA o del ETA y que en verdad, haciendo abstracción de la droga, de su economía irresistible para los consumidores, aun de los propios americanos, tiene muy poco de postmoderna y esta intelectualmente lejanísima de las propuestas mediáticas del comandante Marcos cuya capacidad operacional parece ser la de un pasivo Buda celestial al lado del metálico engranaje de insurgencia escalonadamente instrumentado y disciplinado por las FARC.
OCHO
Otro aspecto relevante es el sistema económico y jurídico desarrollado por las FARC en su zona liberada. En principio han promulgado tres leyes esenciales, la 01 de reforma agraria, la 02 de impuesto a las riquezas que superen el millón de dólares y la 03 que castiga a los funcionarios corruptos.
Asimismo, con la precisión de ingenieros agrónomos han destinado 110.000 hectáreas para el cultivo de coca y 11.000 para la producción de heroína, vital para las grandes intervenciones quirúrgicas cuando se la trata adecuadamente. Y en este punto la economía sumergida comienza a encontrarse con la economía real, legal y que constituye el tablero de una larga partida de ajedrez que -como hemos dicho -se juega entre los laboratorios europeos y los americanos y en ese sentido no hay que olvidar las experiencias de legalización efectuadas en Holanda y las teorías que ,desde lo económico Milton Fridmam dixit ,sugieren la legalización para hacer bajar los precios, desarticular los lobbys y seguir los pasos que los propios americanos siguieron al decretar el fin de la prohibición de las bebidas alcohólicas que se producían en Canadá.
Y significativamente en Canadá la DEA ha detectado una importante producción de marihuana y también en este caso se comienzan a tejer conjeturas sobre la inevitabilidad del conflicto colombiano, la llegada del Extremo Oriente a Latinoamérica, el largo brazo de los bancos ingleses, altamente especializados en la materia desde la lejana guerra del opio y la colonización de Bengala, de lejos la región mas rica en esta clase de culturas agrarias del territorio hindú.
En ese sentido los nuevos Clive de América Latina estarían disputando un juego de mascaras que pasan alternativamente por la DEA ,los bancos centrales de los países con alta masa monetaria off-shore y ,naturalmente y como no podía ser de otro modo, las organizaciones guerrilleras poseedoras de una ideología algo setentista pero insertas en el mundo capitalista real con una energía que no solo no resulta ser antiglobalizadora sino que acompaña el fenómeno y de una forma patológicamente extraña lo complementa haciendo trizas los estados nación heredados para dar origen a un nuevo tipo de estructuras.
Y el hecho no debería asombrarnos después del 11 de septiembre cuando percibimos que un estado actualmente, o las potestades y el desarrollo de la violencia puede distribuirse universalmente en redes y encarnarse simplemente en la persona de un individuo, grupo o clan y en ese aspecto la identificación de Bin Ladem con el Che Guevara no es un extremo ejercicio de imaginación sino la simple constatación de que los nuevos mitos tienen una capacidad de marketing absolutamente globalizadora y tan mortal o eficaz como la cultura de los video-clips.
Y la cultura de los video-clips ha dejado de ser una contracultura como lo fue el movimiento hippie de los sesenta-estoy pensando en Kerouac, en Thimoty Leary y en Burroughs, para ser simplemente un gran negocio que posee un hilo conductor cultural que nos remite a la droga en sus contenidos y que tiene su capital en Miami, no en Colombia, precisamente.
Desde luego que para la intelectualidad europea y Argentina, el señor Javier Calderón, de nacionalidad libanesa y colombiana baja un discurso político que remite a la liberación, a la patria grande de Bolívar y San Martín y -como lo hizo en un reportaje concedido a un medio argentino-hasta de las Islas Malvinas, pero algo en el discurso de independentismo modelo Galeano tiene algo de mohoso, de anciano, de geriátrico intelectual en tanto que la metodología guerrillera, su aprovisionamiento de armas que encuentra limites auto impuestos ya que capital es lo que presumiblemente sobra y sobre todo su forma de recaudación es lo que realmente tiene de interesante y de genuinamente moderno en este relato.
NUEVE
En este punto se hace inevitable el análisis del discurso ideológico de la guerrilla y algo mucho más interesante, la calidad intelectual de los apoyos que logran en el mundo para luego adentrarnos en la posibilidad-imposibilidad de los escenarios de negociación y las alternativas futuribles que se abren para la guerra interna.
Como fue el caso de Centroamérica en otras oportunidades reencontramos la temática de los Derechos Humanos ,la acción de la izquierda internacional y de la propia izquierda norteamericana ,encarnada en figuras tan esenciales como Noam Chomsky, Susan Sontag y David Ellsberg., sin descuidar a gente como Norman Mailer y el hecho de que algunos de ellos sean de confesión israelita pero a la vez críticos de la política de defensa y seguridad del Estado de Israel constituye una paradoja que no es menor y que nuevamente globaliza pero hacia el Medio Oriente la problemática del marco regional sudamericano.
Casi todos ellos son figuras de peso y formadores de opinión que no han metabolizado con la excepción parcial de Sontag el semitriunfo o semiderrota americana en Vietnam, todo depende del nivel de angulacion del análisis.
Semitriunfo porque la guerra de Vietnam, victoria táctica soviética limitada a un fuerte competidor de China como luego se descostro en la bravísima guerra chino-vietnamita de 1979, inoculó objetivamente a todo el sudeste asiático con una fuerte vacuna antiguerrillera, frustrando de cuajo la famosa teoría del domino.
No solo no hubo domino sino que el capitalismo entro con fuerza en los países periféricos, Japón recobro gran parte de su hegemonía comercial en la zona y el Vietnam nacionalista y unificado terminó por ofrecer sus explotaciones petroleras off-shore a las propias compañías americanas.
Semiderrota porque USA no pudo dejar de reflejar la imagen de un ejercito occidental en desbandada, de un contingente armado que se replegaba paroxisticamente y que las banderas de la democracia casi permanecieron por un minuto televisivo yacientes en el polvo, como una de esas trágicas novelas metaforizadas de William Faulkner.
Para esa izquierda americana Vietnam fue el equivalente de lo que fue la causa de la Republica Española para la generación de Upton Sinclair, Eugene O´neill y John Doss Passos.
No es casual entonces que intenten rehacer la historia en Colombia, como antes lo intentaron en El Salvador y en Nicaragua.
Ocurre que esa izquierda, que no tiene posibilidades de triunfo político en Estados Unidos porque allí la contradicción social se resuelve mediante la migración interna. El ajuste salarial y las limpiezas inevitablemente sucias de los ciclos capitalistas duros se resuelven gracias al recurso inmigratorio y a la selectiva asimilación de las minorías, encuentra su bandera de combate en la antiglobalizacion versus el Estado -Nación o simplemente globalización versus modelo social con justicia social avanzada modelo escandinavo mediante.
En esto los intelectuales americanos que apoyan el Tratado Internacional y la Corte Internacional contra Crímenes de Guerra y se expresan en redes como HALTWAR en innumerables ONG , la coincidencia con la línea de pensamiento de gente como Ignacio Ramonet, Toni Negri, Eduardo Galeano y el argentino Atilio Boron entre otros y no perciben que el elemento cardinal de las FARC apunta a la disolución de los estados caribeños de pacotilla y que en ese aspecto la cultura de la droga es el elemento que con mayor fluidez se despega de las necesidades ordenancistas del estado-nación a la europea convirtiendo esas naciones de pacotilla y deliberadamente reitero el juicio despectivo porque proviene exactamente de ese sector, en un enorme mercado de individualidades consumistas pero sin un proyecto colectivo común.
Para ese sector el problema de la droga es un no problema y se atienen mas bien a la opinión de Human Riges Wacht que apunta unidireccionalmente su artillería a los paramilitares, como se refleja en el informe Colombia and Military Links, de Martín Hodgson de febrero del 2000, al informe de las Naciones Unidas del mismo periodo en el clásico trabajo "Informes por piases sobre la practica de los Derechos Humanos" del periodo 1998/99. El director sueco esta citado por Ana Carrigan en un excelente articulo publicado por Irish Times el 6 de mayo del 2000.
El plan Colombia, iniciado bajo la administración de Clinton, incluyó el mayor apoyo americano a un país latinoamericano en términos cuantitativamente militares y presupuestarios. Pero según la izquierda americana y europea, las ONG, la Organización de juristas de Colombia y el Latín América and Caribean Group los resultados fueron catastróficos en términos de migración poblacional y los operativos de contrainsurgencia desatados por los paramilitares que claramente esperaban la llegada de un presidente como Uribe para poder encarar una acción tan decisiva como la efectuada por la OAS en Argelia que fue también un lamentable fracaso político antecedido por una victoria militar en la propia ciudad de Argel.
En el ínterin el programa socialista de las FARC y su peregrinar por la capitales socialdemócratas europeas se ha visto reforzado por el semifracaso de las políticas surgidas del consenso de Washington en América Latina, la puja intelectual que reintroduce en países fuertemente antiamericanos por lo menos a nivel de sus intelectuales el NAFTA y el cambio del centro de gravedad en las prioridades para el desarrollo que se esta dando en el marco sudamericano con el triunfo de LULA en el Brasil, de versiones remozadas del velazquismo militar en Ecuador y Venezuela, cuya expresión chavista afecta directamente los intereses colombianos, la llegada de una subterránea coalición peronista de viejo cuño aliada al ala socialdemócrata del frepasismo de retaguardia en la Argentina y el previsible desmantelamiento en el corto plazo del estado de bienestar que permitió la tranquila y sosegada supervivencia de la alternancia democrática uruguaya.
En síntesis, los cambios políticos en América Latina- que oxigenan parcialmente al régimen cubano que tal vez pronto deberá afrontar su delicado mecanismo de sucesión política, complican el problema colombiano y están muy lejos de resolverlo.
DIEZ
En primer lugar se hace necesario analizar los aspectos geopolíticos del tema.
Ancestralmente Sudamérica ha sufrido con retraso los embates de las corrientes culturales, políticas y económicas del arrea del Atlántico Norte. y hoy con la tercera revolución industrial en marcha, la fragmentación de los espacios geopolíticos construidos en Versalles y Yalta, la creciente productividad del capitalismo en su versión toffleriana de tercera ola tecnotrónica y comunicacional, la internacionalización del capitalismo financiero totalmente desteñido de colores nacionales, la fragilidad de los ecosistemas terrestres y la emergencia de la droga, el terrorismo y los fundamentalismo como expresiones ocultas de nacionalismo unidos al plasma de los factores religiosos la agenda mundial encuentra a Sudamérica en una fase de mutación política y económica a la vez y de conflictos territoriales irresueltos.
Los problemas básicamente están planteados por el narcoterrorismo si aceptamos esta expresión como algo definitivo en los santuarios subtropicales y en ese aspecto el centro de gravedad del problema se centra en el manejo ambiental de la Amazonia, los cuatro problemas de desconexión nacional irresueltos entre Bolivia, Colombia, Malvinas y en alguna medida Brasil, los dos problemas económico-sociales que preanticipan una desconexión y fractura de la geografía en términos morales: narcotráfico y marginación urbana acelerada todo ello sumergido en un escenario de falta de paradigmáticos ejemplos de representatividad política democrática y con una deuda externa que supera los 300.000 millones de dólares solamente en el área del MERCOSUR y que hacen que los organismos internacionales apliquen la inexorabilidad de sus leyes inquebrantables, tal como anticipara el historiador J.Mangan en su clásico "The games ethic and imperialism" en 1986.
La deuda es un problema de discusión estridente y no siempre edificante, pero al margen de que es un duro condicionamiento para las economías latinoamericanas-no lo fue para Estados Unidos por las valencias extraeconómicas inexistentes en América Latina-opera también como un duro factor de disciplinamiento y si recordamos que las FARC ofrecieron en su momento pagar lisa y llanamente la deuda externa de Ecuador con dinero claramente ilegal advertimos como las variables en disputa giran siempre en torno la globalización de los actores en juego y no de la esquemática pelea entre imperio y nación que se disputaba en los años setenta.
En el aspecto geopolítico de su marco regional más inmediato la llamada derecha latinoamericana sostiene que Chávez, por ejemplo constituye un santuario para las FARC algo equivalente a lo que fue falsamente, Vietnam del Norte para la frágil Vietnam del Sur.
La falsedad se debe a que siempre existió un solo Vietnam sin mayores rivalidades entre si ,mas que los que generan los sistemas económicos enfrentados, en tanto que la rivalidad entre Colombia y Venezuela es bastante ancestral ya que ambos territorios aspiran a ser la gran Colombia o la gran Venezuela y en ese sentido, mas allá de las apelaciones un poco decimonónicas al bolivarismo el apoyo total a las guerrillas podría redundar en una larga disputa con el propio Chávez ya que entre los dos países hay una gran cantidad de conflictos de desfragmentación y de reivindicación fronteriza no resueltos ,que se agudizarían con una toma del poder absoluto por parte de las FARC.
En ese aspecto tanto el verborrágico Chávez como la conducción de las FARC operan con la prudencia de un soldado de infantería que debe manejar cautamente su fusil de asalto FAL. Sabe que el arma puede partir la espina dorsal de un hombre con un tiro preciso de -digamos-200 metros, por lo tanto ajusta su reglaje de tiro a solo 100.
La relación con Fidel Castro es operativamente retórica por la ancianidad del propio Castro que comienza a pensar simplemente en su sucesión.
Lo cierto es que tanto los paramilitares como el ejército nacional y por ende las FARC tienen sólidos motivos para no bajar la guardia y eso no solo dificulta sino que parece esterilizar cualquier alternativa diplomática.

ONCE
Por todo lo expuesto es muy poco probable que la crisis colombiana se resuelva por vía de una negociación al estado actual de las cosas.
La licuación del poder estatal, la galvánica forja del poder encarnado en la guerrilla y el nuevo planteo estratégico americano- mucho más muscular que el de Clinton- y extremadamente robustecido por los atentados y la consiguiente guerra en Afganistán dificultan las señales de benevolencia insinuadas tanto por las organizaciones de Derechos Humanos como por la iglesia católica.
La evolución de la política sudamericana hacia posiciones levemente independentistas en materia de política exterior-¿Brasil, Venezuela, Argentina?-hacen pensar que los americanos privilegiaran razones de orden estratégico para su retaguardia, mas que argumentaciones que busquen razones de consenso.
Por el contrario la diplomacia exterior americana, inicialmente dividida entre la sonrisa de Colin Powell y la aridez de Rumsfield parece derivar hacia este último por una razón muy simple: la guerra en Kabul no provocó el estallido Islámico revolucionario que algunos en el seno de la NATO y en el laborismo israelí tanto temían.
La pacificación de la región podría pasar, para los europeos, por un consistente acuerdo con la socialdemocracia, los demócratas americanos, el Vaticano, Rusia que ha estado muy activa en la región, en particular en el Brasil en los últimos tiempos y el fortalecimiento de un MERCOSUR que sirva de atractor para una solución consensuada.
Pero también esto es poco posible por la acción de las fuerzas en presencia colombianas. La derecha tiene concretos intereses económicos que defender y jamás aceptara la ley de reforma agraria o los impuestos y los reclamos territoriales que pretenden vorazmente las FARC.
En la trinchera opuesta el modelo prusiano o vietnamita de las FARC, profesionalizar y sofisticar su ejercito hasta que el poder político del país se galvanice en torno a el por la simple atracción de la fuerza de gravedad frente a los vacíos irremediables, carece de motivaciones concretas para abrazar el pluripartidismo, la democracia liberal y el sistema capitalista de la economía pergeñada en los noventa.
No hay un Camilo Cienfuegos católico dentro de las FARC, ni tampoco una serie de tendencias como en la revolución nicaragüense ni tampoco un pragmático Castro, capaz de todas las alianzas para defender sus intereses y su propia supervivencia política,
En esta disyuntiva toda hipótesis de pacificación se desvanece y la opción se reduce a una imposible acción directa americana - malgré Uribe -a una acción combinada con países del MERCOSUR, lo cual no parece posible en el corto plazo a la luz de los cambios políticos o una simple vietnamizacion del conflicto de forma jibarizada.
En síntesis mantener la vigencia de la guerra en niveles controlables pero que vacunen la zona contra otras posibles insurgencias, repitiendo homeopáticamente el esquema de Vietnam en una maniobra de bajo perfil y esencialmente preventiva.
Colombia aparece entonces como un conejo, un conejillo de indias, al cual se le pueden aplicar todas las vacunas a condición de que en esa sofisticada experimentación de drogas políticas, algunas de ellas ya irremediablemente anticuadas, no saltee los limites de su geografía y no provoque un efecto derrame sobre los cocaleros bolivianos, los sin tierra brasileños, y los piqueteros argentinos a los que se sumaran pronto, previsiblemente, los uruguayos.
Los problemas estratégicos reales se reducen al tema del narcotráfico, a su consumo, a la consolidación y legalización de sus ganancias, a su ilimitable poder corruptor y a la difusión de una contracultura pesimista, inacabada. Incompleta. Mutación mayor del anarquismo pacifista de los sesenta.
Curiosamente las ganancias de la droga son el único hilo conductor que vincula - como a clanes enfrentados por los mismos intereses - a los tres sectores en que se divide la sociedad: el país legal, los paramilitares y la guerrilla de la jungla. También las mafias latinoamericanas, los países que producen precursores que constituyen los apoyos externos del narcotráfico.
La segunda posibilidad inquietante de las próximas maniobras es que la confrontación americana con Asia se acentúe y mundialice y en ese caso las FARC podrían operar como socios latinos de una vasta coalición islámica contra el mundo anglosajón inicialmente, operando desde la propia retaguardia imperial del hemisferio. Algo parecido intentaron los japoneses, después de 1941 con la proyección de sus planes de guerra que apuntaban directamente contra el Canal de Panamá.
En ese caso al narcotráfico se sumaria el fundamentalismo islámico y la espontaneidad de las colonias asiáticas instaladas en la Triple Frontera, en Brasil y Perú adquirirían una dinámica nueva. La dinámica del Asia contra Occidente y en eso nos retrotraemos a las tesis de Hungtinton, el choque que no es exactamente de civilizaciones pero sí es un duro choque cultural.
Pero este es un escenario actualmente improbable, más cercano al medio o largo plazo salvo que Irak acelere los tiempos y la realidad encaje un cubo en la cabeza de los occidentales .
En lo inmediato se puede prever la vietnaminizacion de baja intensidad. Al menos por el momento. Lo cierto es que las armas de la paz están mudas, sin pólvora intelectual ni creatividad y realmente muy mal mantenidas en el hemisferio sur del continente.


Comentarios

  1. 10/06,2016 | 13:29

    Estimado
    La desgracia de nuestro país detener un estadista como
    Alvaro Uribe

  2. 10/06,2016 | 13:29

    Estimado
    La desgracia de nuestro país detener un estadista como
    Alvaro Uribe

  3. 10/06,2016 | 17:20

    Estimado. Nuestro Alvaro Uribe es Mauricio Macri. El problema es que el joven ingeniero infiltrado por gente del Fepaso no se atreve a establecer la pena de muerte para los mayores de edad. La crisis está cerca. La señora Malcorra perdió, como ya vaticine, y quiero que alguien me explique si no es un derecho humanoide fusilar directamente a los cuadros del narcotráfico que operan en la Argentina y el Uruguay. Macri es un ingenuo porque pensó que su propia clase de pertenencia lo apoyaría. Kennedy pensó lo mismo y la cosa terminó con una carabina Manchester Carcaño justo a la altura de una elevación que facilitaba el campo de tiro. Estimado amigo, estamos en problemas y estos empeorarán a medida que se acerque Navidad. Cordiales saludos. Edgardo Arrivillaga.

  4. 10/09,2016 | 16:35

    Estimados
    Lamentablemente Macri no es Uribe, no sé si por falta de decisión, falta de pelotas o porque está en otra cosa. Es verdad que estamos ad portas de una crisis social, fogueada por la izquierda extrema reagrupada y el kirchnerismo matancero y sus afines. La ola de inseguridad, asesinatos y secuestro, algunos harto sospechosos, muestran claramente la acción de toda esa mierda.

    Todo eso mientras Malcorra, impresentable gordita con pinta de doña de barrio, vuelve de su obvio fracaso al frente de la inútil ONU, amenaza con que seguirá al frente de la Cancillería. Patricia Bullrich, otra impresentable que no hace un carajo salvo humo.

    De paso, hubo dos tiradores en el asunto Kennedy, la famosa bala "mágica" de trayectoria que ni Fu Manchú hubiera trazado salida del Manlicher con una bala imposible para un sniper como la Carcaño y otra creo 270W. Por lo menos es lo que desde hace mucho tengo por razonablemente cierto.

    Abrazo

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